The signal from the floor: field notes for die and press shops.

This week in one line: There's more work coming down the line, mostly bakkie work, but it's getting more expensive to do. Price your quotes for the cost of the steel and fuel you'll actually pay, not the order book you hope for.

Lead: Vehicle exports finally turn up — on bakkies

naamsa's October figures (released 2 Nov) show domestic new-vehicle sales at 61,890 (+10.4% y/y) and exports at 38,117 (+6.3% y/y, +21.1% on September). That's the first real lift since export declines set in from February. Bakkie exports drove it (+24.3%), while passenger-car exports slipped 1.5%. Year-to-date exports are still 8.3% behind 2025.

Why it matters: OEM build schedules drive stamped-part call-offs. If you supply bakkie lines, expect firmer releases. If you're mostly on passenger cars, nothing has changed yet. One month isn't a trend, so don't add shifts or capacity on this number alone.

Still checking: Which OEMs drove the bakkie jump, and whether November schedules hold.

Sources: naamsa release (https://naamsa.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/11/20261102-naamsa-October-2026-New-Vehicle-Sales-Media-Release.pdf) · EBNewsDaily (https://www.ebnewsdaily.co.za/2026/11/02/south-africa-vehicle-sales-october-2026-naamsa/)

Top 5

Item 1 — Factory index edges up, but input prices jump

The Absa PMI rose to 49.6 (from a revised 48.7) but is still under the 50 growth line. Purchasing prices jumped from 71.1 to 73.7 on fuel over R30/l and a weaker rand. Employment is weak at 44.2, and six-month expectations fell to 51.7 ahead of the 4 Nov elections. A temporary fuel-levy cut runs from 4 Nov to 1 Dec.

Why it matters: Costs are rising faster than orders are recovering, which hurts on fixed-price jobs. Shorten quote validity, or add a fuel/steel clause, before the levy relief ends.

Still checking: The metals and engineering sub-sector reading.

Sources: BER (https://ber.ac.za/Documents/Index/Absa-PMI) · Engineering News (https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/absa-pmi-improves-for-a-second-consecutive-month-in-october-2026-11-02)

Item 2 — US coil keeps climbing while Asia stays soft

Nucor's consumer spot price for hot-rolled coil is now $1,280/short ton (+$10). CSI is at $1,350 and Midwest futures at $1,360. A year ago it was about $785. Chinese HRC remains weak, around 3,220 yuan/t.

Why it matters: The wider the gap between US and Asian prices, the more surplus Asian coil goes looking for markets like South Africa. That puts pressure on local mill pricing and on how long your quotes can stay valid. Local supply is also uncertain while the IDC–ArcelorMittal SA deal is still unsigned.

Still checking: Local mills' November list prices, and the next AMSA SENS.

Sources: Steel Market Update (https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/2026/11/02/nucor-increases-spot-hr-to-1280-ton/) · World Steel Dynamics (https://www.worldsteeldynamics.com/usa-hrc-spot-price-perched-at-1290-1300-ton/)

Item 3: A double-sheet sensor that works from one side

Turck's NI5DS is an inductive sensor that detects double sheets from one side only, over IO-Link, with no separate evaluation unit. It handles 1-12 mm sheet in any metal and sends raw readings to the PLC.

Why it matters: Double sheets break dies. Checking at the feed rather than at a separate station saves cycle time and space, and it can be retrofitted to older lines. (Related: Berg's BERGtronic clamp-mounted sensors, which watch slide deformation. Same idea: monitoring without rebuilding the die.)

Still checking: Price and South African availability.

Sources: Automation Fair (https://www.automation-fair.com/turck-ni5ds-inductive-double-sheet-sensor/) · Berg & Co. (https://www.berg-spanntechnik.de/en/news/latest-news/2026/2026-10-28.php)

Item 4: Artisans are leaving. These are the levers a shop controls

A Mining Weekly piece by a training provider (the Artisan Training Institute, so treat it as supplier content) cites about 3,768 Australian skill-stream places for South Africans in 2024-25, an artisan average age of around 55, and a national target of 30,000 artisans a year that has never been met. merSETA's 2027/28 plan lists 447 hard-to-fill vacancies, 35% of them in skilled trades.

Why it matters: Toolmakers face the same pull from overseas. The levers within a shop's control are clear career paths, paid upskilling, mentoring that's actually scheduled, and fair work-back terms on training you fund.

Still checking: Attrition data specific to toolmakers.

Sources: Mining Weekly (https://www.miningweekly.com/article/the-great-artisan-exodus-why-our-best-tradespeople-are-leaving-2026-10-27) · merSETA SSP (https://www.merseta.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/merSETA_Sector-Skills-Plan_2027-28.pdf) PtSA (https://www.ptsa.co.za/are-we-underestimating-south-africas-need-for-toolmakers-a-ptsa-perspective/)

Item 5: naamsa maps where local parts could replace imports

naamsa's Country of Origin Matrix shows R357.5bn of automotive imports in 2025, with replacement parts up 2.6% to R107.5bn. It flags body panels as harder to localise, and brackets, exhausts and wear parts as more realistic second-tier targets.

Why it matters: Buyers and government will use this to decide what to localise. Brackets and wear parts are exactly where a local stamper can pitch.

Still checking: Which stamped-part categories appear in the matrix, and whether any incentive is attached yet.

Sources: naamsa matrix release (https://naamsa.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/20261029-naamsa-Launches-Country-of-Origin-Matrix.pdf) | TimesLIVE (https://www.timeslive.co.za/motoring/2026-10-28-steenhuisen-calls-for-more-car-parts-to-be-made-in-sa/)

Sidebar: A whole US stamping plant under the hammer

Dexter Stamping's Murfreesboro, Tennessee plant goes to a live webcast auction on 17 Nov 2026 at 10:00 ET (17:00 SAST), run by Holland Industrial Group and Hilco Global. Inspection days are 13 and 16 Nov. Lots include a 2010 1,200-ton AIDA transfer press, a 1,200-ton Minster, a 400-ton AIDA, a 500-ton Minster, 300-ton Niagaras, Stamtec robotic press cells, FANUC wire-bend cells and Accubilt robotic welding. The plant can be bought whole or by lot.

The plant reportedly shut without warning on 28 Oct 2025, with 114 jobs lost. A WARN Act class action against Dexter and its parent, Dynamic Industrial Group, was allowed to proceed on 22 Oct 2026. These are allegations, not findings.

Why it matters: Heavy used presses rarely come up as a full set. This is a pricing reference point for used iron and possibly a buying opportunity, though freight and rigging to South Africa need to be costed honestly.

Sources: The Fabricator (https://www.thefabricator.com/thefabricator/news/automationrobotics/live-webcast-auction-of-dexter-stamping-scheduled-for-nov-17) | Hoodline (https://hoodline.com/2026/10/murfreesboro-plant-s-sudden-closure-left-114-workers-jobless-lawsuit-says/)

The AI problem on the shop floor: required, but nobody’s shown the path

Almost every business now says it “uses AI.” McKinsey’s 2025 survey puts regular AI use in at least one function at 88%. That sounds like the race is over. It isn’t. Nearly two-thirds of those firms have not started scaling AI across the enterprise; only about a third are scaling; fully scaled sits around 7%. Just 39% report any enterprise-level EBIT impact. For manufacturers, BCG finds 68% have started implementing AI in production networks — and only 16% have hit their AI-related targets. The gap is not awareness. It is how.

Surveys keep landing on the same blockers. Manufacturing SMEs often cannot pick a suitable application (46% in one 2025 study) or judge cost–benefit for their own plant (57%). OECD puts skills as the main barrier for about 40% of manufacturing employers not yet on AI — and for more than half of SMEs still off generative AI. Make UK: only 2% have AI widely embedded; over half name skills gaps down to technician and operator level. Gartner predicted at least 30% of GenAI projects would be abandoned after proof of concept by end-2025 — unclear value, poor data, cost, risk. ABBYY’s manufacturing work notes the quiet version already underway: staff using ChatGPT-class tools on their own, while skill and integration still bite.

South Africa matches the pattern, with harder edges. Reviews of local manufacturing SMEs still describe low AI adoption and no clear implementation framework. Skills demand, software cost, power outside the hubs, and funding decide whether a cycle starts this year or slips. Optimism is high; a repeatable path for a mid-size die or press shop is not.

Why it matters: OEMs will keep asking for digital compliance, traceability, and faster response. You do not need a smart-factory programme. You need one painful loop — quotes, scrap coding, call-offs, certificates — with an owner, a metric, and a tool that fits the workflow you already run. Pilots without a cost–benefit story are how budgets die.

Still checking: Any SA survey that isolates stamping/tooling AI use; OEM supplier digital requirements that actually show up in RFQs.

Sources: McKinsey State of AI 2025 · BCG factory AI · Springer mfg AI challenges · OECD AI and skills · Make UK · Gartner GenAI PoC · ABBYY mfg GenAI · ODI SA manufacturing AI · Akoh SLR

On the floor this week

• Shorten quote validity, or add a steel/fuel adjustment clause.
• If you supply bakkie lines, check your November releases against your capacity.
• Ask your sensor supplier whether NI5DS or an equivalent can be retrofitted to your oldest feed.
• Pick one artisan and agree a written development path with them this month.
• Pick one painful admin or quality loop (quotes, scrap coding, call-offs, certificates). Name an owner and a metric before you buy any AI tool.

Next issue: sensors for stamping, staff retention in depth, and a closer look at AI that actually sticks on the floor.

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